Deribit Exchange Data Signals Looming Bitcoin Volatility Despite Summer Stagnation

Bitcoin's price stability masks mounting tension in derivatives markets. The cryptocurrency has fluctuated between $100,000 and $110,000 for three consecutive weeks, with implied volatility hitting multi-year lows. Singapore's QCP Capital observes striking similarities to last summer's stagnation period, when BTC struggled to maintain momentum above $70,000.

Deribit's DVOL index has dipped NEAR 40—marking a two-year low—while realized volatility indicates even calmer conditions. This discrepancy has prompted traders to reduce gamma exposure and unwind basis trades, effectively eliminating what QCP describes as 'the natural demand for volatility.' Options trading reveals investors are shifting bullish positions to September, with widespread rolling of $130,000-$140,000 call options.